With such horrid leadership at the national (United States) level concerning this deadly pandemic, let's all hope that containment efforts being initiated by local and state governments will make travel to the 2020 conference safe by early August. Assuming no breakthroughs have been made between now and then to contain this pandemic and that the conference itself isn't cancelled by Claris, do any forum members plan to attend? My vote is a definite no. Interested to hear thoughts of others.
I feel this is too early to determine. What is certain, if the virus is till a concern, I will look closely at the cancellation policies for everything surrounding the actual event (airfare, hotel, ...).
Yeah. Like Bobino said...way too early. There is still a chance the weather change drastically affects the spread. Along with recent adjustments, it's a matter to slowing it down. Calling it "deadly" is also too early. Since so few people are being tested, we don't really have a proper sense of what the denominator is. Between Oct 2019 and Feb 2020, the flu has killed 12,000. In 2017-2018 flu season, the flu killed 61,000. But yeah, that spread is rapid. Hopefully it slows, and the death rate ends up as low as possible. Economically, this is going to last a long time.
According to the exponential growth, everyone remembers high-school math, right?, we're only a few weeks (or days?) behind Italy in case total. Unlike the rest of the world, testing in the US is mostly missing so, sadly, and horrible for public health, nobody STILL has a handle on US total cases.
The scientists say that CV has a 10X higher death rate than flu -- especially for certain groups. Plus, this is a new virus which, again according to experts (epidemiologists) will now become endemic (common) so it will be back this Fall.
Yes, with everyone staying home, hopefully the sigmoid curve finishes the exponential portion and reaches its inflection point (hello second derivative test!) and starts flattening sooner rather than later.
Cancelling Devcon is/was a good idea. How could they realistically do anything else?
I'm not an epidemiologist, so the graph below (graph + math in Python), with the assumptions I made may not be exactly correct, but the result is shocking. Note I did not graph the sigmoid curve portion, only the exponential portion.
Let's get over the hand-waving and use math and science!
To refresh your math, please read: Logistic Growth, Part 1
(graph assumes 1,000 initial total cases)
Everybody stay safe and healthy!
unfortunately, a weather-change won't help killing that beast. It's already all around the globe - under all of the weather conditions (cold, warm, dry, etc)
Well, there was a televangelist that was curing CV over the television so we have that, at least....
Why would you respond to a hypothetical question, stated as "assuming no breakthrough have been made between now and then" by stating "way to early". Did the original question not make sense that it was phrased as a hypothetical, and thus answering it as if it weren't makes not a lot of sense?
Best Covid analytical article I’ve read till now.
I wouldn't make a judgement on what you think I feel based on a comment made 7 months ago. Other than required and necessary doctors appointments and getting groceries, I haven't left the house since.
Thanks, @Cecile! A comprehensive article giving in-depth information about what we currently know about how the virus spreads. It also shows that we are still learning.
My personal approach: wear mask in crowded places and inside public places, don’t shake hands, avoid crowds.
Swiss Policy Research has a page with lots of COVID-19 resources...
I do not agree with everything there (which would be impossible as different points of view are linked to.)
Lots of food for thought.